New York Yankees at Houston Astros ALCS Game 1 odds, picks and betting tips

The New York Yankees (103-59 regular season) visit the Houston Astros (107-55) Saturday at Minute Maid Park for Game 1 of the American League Championship Series at 8:08 p.m. ET. Below is a breakdown of the Yankees-Astros sports gambling odds and lines, with sports betting tips on the moneyline, spread (run line) and Over/Under, along with suggested bets.

ALDS RESULTS

Yankees: Swept the Minnesota Twins 3-0 and have had four days off.

Astros: Beat the Tampa Bay Rays 6-1 in Game 5 Thursday.

Yankees at Astros: Projected starting pitchers

RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Zack Greinke

Tanaka was 11-9 with a 4.45 ERA in 32 appearances (31 starts) this season. Last start: Beat the Twins in Game 2 of the ALDS, allowing one run on three hits in five innings with 7 K’s. Postseason history: 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA in six starts, including 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA (2 ER, 13 IP) vs. Houston in 2017 ALCS. Career vs. Astros: 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA in seven regular-season starts, including two no-decisions this year with a 2.25 ERA (3 ER, 12 IP).

Greinke went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts since joining the Astros at the trade deadline – he was 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA for the year, which included 23 starts with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last outing: Lost Game 3 of the ALDS at the Rays 10-3, yielding six runs on five hits in 3 2/3 innings. Postseason history: 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA in 12 starts. Career vs. Yankees: 4-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 15 games (12 starts), including 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA (3 ER, 12 2/3 IP) in two starts this season.

Yankees at Astros: By the numbers


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  • The Yankees are 20-12 in Tanaka’s starts. The Astros are 8-3 in Greinke’s starts.
  • The Astros won the season series 4-3. The Over/Under went 5-2.
  • The Astros beat the Yankees 4-3 in the 2017 ALCS with the home team winning every game.
  • LF Giancarlo Stanton (3-for-16 career vs. Greinke) and 1B DJ LeMahieu (5-for-17) are the only Yankees on the playoff roster to have homered vs. Greinke.
  • Astros 2B Jose Altuve (8-for-29, CF George Springer (6-for-22), SS Carlos Correa (6-for-24) and RF Josh Reddick (3-for-18) each have two homers vs. Tanaka.

Yankees at Astros: Odds, picks and betting tips

Sep 29, 2019; Arlington, TX; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Photo Credit: Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports

Sep 29, 2019; Arlington, TX; New York Yankees starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. (Photo Credit: Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports)

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 3:30 a.m. ET

Moneyline : There’s a number of reasons to bet the Astros (-167) …

  • Best home record in the majors at 63-21.
  • Greinke is 8-1 with a 3.27 ERA at home this season.
  • Tanaka is 3-6 with a 6.05 ERA on the road in 2019.

… but I’m backing the YANKEES ( +135). They’re 45-35 on the road and they’re rested. My strategy: Bet the Yankees in both Games 1 and 2 as STRONGEST PLAYS. If they split, you’ll come out ahead since they’ll be underdogs in both contests.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet wins $13.50 profit if the Yankees win – every $1 wagered wins $1.35.

Run line : AVOID. Both teams have impressive RL records. The Yankees (+1.5, -154) led the majors at 96-69; the Astros (-1.5, +120) went 90-77 and were 48-36 at home.

Over/Under : Back the OVER 8.5 ( -129) with a small wager. The OVER is 5-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings. The Yankees are the majors’ best O/U road team at 47-29-4. Plus, they’re 86-73-6 O/U overall on the year. The Astros are 74-86-7 O/U overall and 38-40-6 O/U at home. Betting the UNDER 8.5 (+105) would profit $10.50 on a $10 bet.

Want some action in this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Johnny’sOctober’s strongest plays: 6-2.

ML postseason strongest plays: 3-1.

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