GBP Sterling is likely to enjoy some relief from the political merry-go-round of Brexit this week, with Parliament currently on recess for the Easter break. But the UK currency could be moved by a spout of data releases, which will give an insight into the state of the economy amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty. As of 8.52am UK time this morning, the pound is trading marginally lower at €1.1567 against the euro. Versus the US dollar, Sterling is worth $1.3082 at the same time of writing.
The latest unemployment and wage figures will be published this morning by the Office for National Statistics.
Latest predictions are forecasting the jobless rate to have held at its lowest level in over 40 years.
City analysts say the rate is likely to stick at 3.9 percent.
Growth of wages is also expected to have held at 3.4 percent despite Brexit uncertainty.
Overall, Sterling may find some support if the data paints a relatively resilient picture of the UK economy
Michael Brown, Caxton FX
Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Service told The Guardian: “For all the chatter about weak and/or cautious UK business investment, restrained by a lack of clarity on Brexit outcomes, the UK labour has proved impressively resilient.
“Today’s report is not expected to alter that perception.
“Employment is seen posting a solid 171K gain, slower than the prior 222K but nevertheless strong, and Average Weekly Earnings are forecast to hold around their post GFC cyclical highs at 3.5 percent y/y headline and 3.4 percent ex-Bonus.
“Vacancies seem likely to remain very robust, having posted a new all-time / cyclical high of 870K in January.”
Other influencers for the pound will be retail figures, set for release on Thursday.
Current forecasts are expecting sales to have dropped in March from February, but show an increase year-on-year.
Inflation data for March is also due out mid-week.
Michael Brown, senior analyst at Caxton FX, said: “Overall, Sterling may find some support if the data paints a relatively resilient picture of the UK economy.”
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