The US economy doesn’t need more fiscal stimulus for a V-shaped recovery, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni says

Brendan McDermid/Reuters

  • Strategist Ed Yardeni thinks the US has enough fiscal and monetary stimulus, and doesn’t need more for a speedy economic recovery. 
  • He told CNBC”s “Street Signs Asia” Wednesday: “We have got an economy which is still getting a tremendous boost from fiscal and monetary policy.”
  • He cited the rise in pending home sales data showing sales rose almost 9% in August and said it was ‘consistent with a V-shaped recovery.”
  • Democrats pushed back a House vote on their $2.2 trillion spending package to Thursday to increase chances of a bipartisan spending package. 
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Republicans and Democrats have been at loggerheads in the US for weeks over the size of the next stimulus plan, but one strategist thinks the US economy is on course for a V-shaped recovery regardless of whether there is another government program.

“I am not sure we really need it. I think the economy can continue to grow with the kind of fiscal stimulus which is still in the system from the first round,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Wednesday.

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“People saved a tremendous amount of money during March and April because they couldn’t spend it,” he added.  “Some of that was income earned by people who worked from home,” he said. 

 Other people who received checks and unemployment benefits also couldn’t spend all of it, he added. 

Lawmakers have approved over $3 trillion in federal aid since the pandemic began devastating the economy in the spring.

Many components of the last major economic relief law, the CARES Act, expired over the summer, and Congress hasn’t implemented other relief measures since.

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“We have got an economy which is still getting a tremendous boost from fiscal and monetary policy,” he said. 

On Wednesday, House speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin agreed the next economic relief package will include federal checks for individuals as Democrats pushed a vote on their $2.2 trillion spending package to Thursday instead of Wednesday to allow more time for bipartisan agreement. 

“We have reached an agreement that if there is a deal, there are direct payments similar to last time that are in the package,” Mnuchin said. 

The pair met for the first time since talks collapsed in August.

Yardeni said that US stocks rose on Wednesday despite a bitter debate between US president Donald Trump and Democratic opponent Joe Biden due to growth in the housing sector. 

“I think the housing led boom is offsetting a lot of the challenges we have in the pandemic led services,” Yardeni added.

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index soared 8.8% last month to a record high of 132.8, thanks to record-low mortgage rates, according to data published Wednesday. The reading marks a fourth-straight monthly increase for the index. 

“The data has been consistent with a V-shaped recovery so far. We had an unprecedented 2-month lockdown  in March and April and then we have had a recovery ever since then. The latest data through September shows a solid recovery,” Yardeni said. 

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